Understanding China: The Vicious Circle of Regime Change

The relatively short history of the United States leaves many Americans unaware of regime cycles and blindly optimistic about the permanence of the current political and economic systems. In reality, every regime or system has a finite lifespan and is ultimately replaced by another. (See America Is in Big Trouble).

In contrast, China, with its thousands of years of history, possesses a deep understanding of the cyclical nature of governance. Since its unification under the Qin Dynasty (pronounced “chin”) in 221 BCE, China has witnessed the rise and fall of thirty-one dynasties. Among these, the eight longest-lasting dynasties that governed all of China include the Western Han (231 years), Eastern Han (195 years), Eastern Jin (103 years), Tang (289 years), Northern Song (167 years), Southern Song (152 years), Ming (276 years), and Qing (267 years). The rest endured for less than a century.

At their outset, dynasties often established a balance among competing interest groups through the redistribution of land, power, and wealth. However, this equilibrium inevitably eroded over time. Land was gradually reabsorbed by wealthy landlords, wealth reconcentrated into the hands of a few, and these elites gained increasing political influence to protect their privileges. As the majority lost access to the means of production, economic stagnation followed. Concurrently, regimes fell victim to corruption, factionalism, and internal power struggles, leading to governance failures such as profligate spending, militarism, excessive taxation, rising debt, and uncontrolled currency issuance. These internal weaknesses were often exacerbated by external shocks such as natural disasters, plagues, foreign invasions, and domestic rebellions.

While the specific lifespan of a dynasty varied, its eventual decline was inevitable. History suggests that three hundred years appears to be the upper limit for the time it takes a regime to decay. In China, no dynasty—no matter how successful—survived beyond three hundred years (see Democracy vs. Plutocracy).

From their long history, the Chinese have gleaned lessons that countries with brief historical experiences often lack. For instance, nations with shorter historical horizons may engage in policies of plunder, exploitation, and bullying of the weak, mistaking short-term dominance for lasting success. In contrast, the Chinese understand that the ultimate victor must be guided by moral integrity, justice, fairness, benevolence, and popular support (see Understanding China: Geography, Confucianism, and Chinese-Style Modernization). Building on this understanding, the Chinese established their current government, the People’s Republic of China. This government is genuinely of the people, by the people, and for the people, aiming to promote the well-being and prosperity of all citizens rather than serving the interests of a small group of landlords, industrial tycoons, and bankers.

The Chinese have learned from their long history the harm of war and the importance of peace. War brings suffering to the people, breeds hatred, destroys homes, disrupts economic development, and depletes national strength. No militaristic regime can last long. A government must focus on economic development rather than waging war in order to gain the support of the people. The Chinese have also learned that a strong modern industry is the cornerstone of an independent nation, and that China must possess a complete industrial system, a comprehensive supply chain, a first-class scientific research community, top-tier education, and a powerful military in order to take its destiny into its own hands.

History has also taught the Chinese that the annexation of land by a small number of powerful landlords ultimately leads to economic collapse. When most people lose their means of production, economic development stagnates. To prevent the concentration of resources in the hands of a few, land in China has been nationalized and allocated to the people for use, with private ownership and land trading prohibited. The Chinese have also learned that the dominance of capital over politics is a key cause of structural decay; thus, the state must oversee capital on behalf of the people, ensuring that it does not influence political decisions to favor special interests.

Furthermore, history has demonstrated that equality and common prosperity are the foundation of social stability. Accordingly, the government implements policies, initiates projects, provides opportunities, and offers financial and technical support to help individuals succeed in various business ventures, while prohibiting monopolistic behavior that restricts opportunity for others. This approach encourages individual initiative while ensuring state oversight of capital to protect the interests of all citizens. Through these measures, China has eradicated poverty, become the world’s largest manufacturing powerhouse, and cultivated the largest middle-class population on the planet.

The Chinese have also come to understand the importance of preventing regime cycles through good governance, meritocracy, collective decision-making, and continuous reform. They have learned through hard lessons the dangers of concentrating absolute power in a single leader, whether hereditary or elected. In response, China has developed mechanisms for collective leadership, established term and age limits for officials, and created systems to ensure orderly and peaceful leadership transitions. Leaders are selected based on moral character, competence, experience, and proven track records—not rhetoric, populism, or ideological posturing. Continuous reforms are implemented to address systemic shortcomings, including clean governance initiatives, self-correction mechanisms, disciplinary inspections, anti-corruption measures, public oversight, reporting and petitioning systems, and impeachment procedures.

Political decisions are made through consensus, grounded in research, surveys, consultation, and discussion rather than partisan conflict. Thousands of years of political experience have made the Chinese acutely aware of the dangers of partisan politics. Political parties represent special interests, and partisan strife severely weakens a government’s ability to govern while creating deep divisions among the populace. The constant rotation of power between rival parties results in policy inconsistency and makes long-term planning impossible. Moreover, voters are not always well informed or rational and can be easily manipulated by populist appeals, or swayed by empty promises and misinformation. Elected politicians often lack the moral depth and practical experience required for effective governance and frequently prioritize donors and short-term re-election goals over the long-term interests of the people. Current administrations may take irresponsible actions—such as overspending, overborrowing, and excessive money printing—to benefit their own tenures, leaving disastrous consequences for future governments. Without continuous reform, these shortsighted practices, driven by self-interest, make it impossible for a regime to escape its historical cycle.

The lessons of history are clear: no regime is immune to cycles of rise and fall. The United States, despite its current global influence, is no exception. If it continues to ignore the historical patterns that have led to the collapse of past regimes—unchecked wealth concentration, political corruption, partisan division, and the dominance of special interests over the common good—its downfall will be inevitable. Without honest self-examination and decisive reforms to address systemic inequality, political dysfunction, and economic mismanagement, the United States risks repeating the very mistakes that have toppled great powers throughout history. Only by learning from these lessons can it hope to preserve stability and avoid becoming yet another casualty of the vicious cycle of regime change. (See Pluralism vs. Monism.)