The Vicious Circle of Regime Change

The history of the United States is so short that most Americans are ignorant of regime cycles and blindly optimistic about the status quo. In fact, any regime or political system has a lifespan, which can be as short as a few years or as long as a few hundred years. It will eventually be replaced by another regime or system (see America Is in Big Trouble).

However, with thousands of years of history, the Chinese understand this well. China has gone through thirty-one dynasties since its unification under the Qin (pronounced chin) Dynasty in 221 BC. Among them, the nine longest-lived dynasties that ruled all of China are: the Western Han Dynasty (231 years), the Eastern Han Dynasty (195 years), the Tang Dynasty (289 years), the Eastern Jin Dynasty (103 years), the Northern Song Dynasty (167 years), the Southern Song Dynasty (152 years), the Yuan Dynasty (162 years), the Ming Dynasty (276 years), and the Qing Dynasty (295 years). The rest lasted less than a hundred years.

Every dynasty, at its inception, achieved a balance acceptable to all interest groups and political factions through the redistribution of power, land, and wealth. Over time, that balance would break down. Land would be annexed again by the landlord class, wealth would reconcentrate into the hands of a few, and political power would be seized by the newly wealthy to serve their own interests. When most people lost access to the means of production, the economy would lose vitality. Simultaneously, the regime would become depraved by corruption, weakened by factionalism and partisan strife, and alienated into oligarchy, plutocracy, dictatorship, or tyranny. Poor governance and mismanagement - such as profligacy, corruption, militarism, overspending, excessive taxation, heavy debts, and uncontrolled currency issuance - would eventually lead to political, economic, and financial failure. These failures would be intensified by natural disasters, plagues, foreign invasions, and rebellions, causing the regime to collapse.

While the lifespan of a dynasty might vary, the regime's downfall was inevitable. Three hundred years appears to be the upper limit for how long it takes a regime to decay. In China, no dynasty, even the most successful, survived beyond three hundred years (see Democracy vs. Plutocracy).

From their long history, the Chinese have learned many lessons that countries with shorter histories do not know. For example, countries with short histories often pursue policies of plundering, exploiting, and bullying the weak. In contrast, the Chinese understand that the ultimate winner must be the one guided by benevolence, justice, fairness, moral integrity, and popular support (see Understanding China: Geography, Confucianism, and Chinese-Style Modernization). Based on this knowledge, the Chinese instituted their current government, the People’s Republic of China. It is a government that is truly of the people, by the people, and for the people, aimed at the well-being and prosperity of all its citizens rather than a small number of landlords, industrial tycoons, and bankers.

History has also taught the Chinese that one major cause of regime cycles is land annexation. To prevent the gradual concentration of resources in the hands of a few, land in China has been nationalized and distributed to the people for use, while the buying and selling of land is prohibited. The Chinese have also learned that the dominance of capital over politics is a key cause of regime change. The state must supervise capital on behalf of the people and prevent it from influencing political decisions in favor of special interests.

Furthermore, history has shown that equality and common prosperity are the foundations of social stability. Therefore, the government provides people with policies, opportunities, projects, and financial and technical support to help them succeed in various business ventures, while prohibiting the formation of monopolies that cut off opportunities for others. This approach harnesses individual initiative while maintaining state oversight of capital to safeguard the interests of all citizens. Through these measures, China has eliminated poverty, become the world's largest manufacturing powerhouse, and created the world’s largest middle-class population.

History has also taught the Chinese to prevent regime cycles through good governance, meritocracy, collective leadership, and continuous reform. They have learned from hard lessons the dangers of absolute power concentrated in a single leader, whether hereditary or elected. As a result, they have established mechanisms for collective decision-making and implemented age and term limits on officials to ensure leadership renewal and peaceful transitions. Officials are selected based on their character, abilities, experience, and achievements, rather than rhetoric, promises, or ideological posturing. Continuous reforms are carried out to address shortcomings within the system. These reforms include clean governance, self-correction mechanisms, disciplinary inspections, anti-corruption measures, public oversight, whistle-blower protections, petitioning systems, and impeachment procedures.

Political decisions are made by consensus through research, inquiry, consultation, and discussion, rather than partisan conflict. Thousands of years of political experience have made the Chinese deeply aware of the dangers of partisan politics. Political parties only represent special interests, and partisan conflicts severely weaken a government's ability to govern while causing deep divisions among the populace. The rotation of power between opposing parties leads to incoherent policies and makes long-term planning impossible. Voters are not always well-informed or rational and can be easily manipulated by empty promises, emotional appeals, and misinformation. Elected politicians often tend to be sensationalist and lack the moral and practical experience necessary for effective governance. They work more for their donors and re-election prospects than for the long-term interests of the people. Current administrations frequently take irresponsible actions such as overspending, overborrowing, and overprinting money to benefit their own tenures, leaving disastrous consequences for future administrations. Without continuous reforms, these shortsighted practices, motivated by self-interest, make it impossible for a regime to escape its historical cycle.

The lessons of history are clear: no regime is immune to the cycles of rise and fall. The United States, despite its current global influence, is not an exception to this rule. If it continues to ignore the historical patterns that have led to the collapse of past regimes - unchecked wealth concentration, political corruption, partisan division, and the dominance of special interests over the common good - its downfall will be inevitable. Without serious reflection on its thinking and behavior, and without meaningful reforms to address systemic inequalities, political dysfunction, and economic mismanagement, the US risks repeating the very mistakes that have toppled great powers throughout history. Only by learning from these lessons can it hope to preserve its stability and avoid becoming yet another casualty in the vicious circle of regime change. (See Pluralism vs. Monism.)