The history of the United States is quite short, leaving many Americans unaware of regime cycles and overly optimistic about the status quo. In reality, any regime or political system has a finite lifespan, ranging from a few years to several centuries, and will ultimately be replaced by another regime or system (see America Is in Big Trouble).
In contrast, with thousands of years of history, the Chinese understand this concept profoundly. Since the unification of China under the Qin (pronounced "chin") Dynasty in 221 BCE, the country has experienced thirty-one dynasties. Of these, the nine longest-lived dynasties that ruled all of China include: the Western Han Dynasty (231 years), the Eastern Han Dynasty (195 years), the Tang Dynasty (289 years), the Eastern Jin Dynasty (103 years), the Northern Song Dynasty (167 years), the Southern Song Dynasty (152 years), the Yuan Dynasty (162 years), the Ming Dynasty (276 years), and the Qing Dynasty (295 years). The remainder lasted less than a century.
At their inception, dynasties established a balance that satisfied various interest groups and political factions through redistributions of power, land, and wealth. Over time, however, this balance eroded. Land would once again be annexed by landlords, wealth would reconcentrate in the hands of a few, and the newly wealthy would seize political power to serve their own interests. When the majority lost access to the means of production, the economy would stagnate. Simultaneously, regimes would suffer from corruption, factionalism, and partisan conflicts, leading to governance failures such as profligacy, militarism, overspending, excessive taxation, debt accumulation, and uncontrolled currency issuance. These issues would result in political, economic, and financial collapse, often exacerbated by natural disasters, plagues, foreign invasions, and rebellions.
While the lifespan of a dynasty could vary, its eventual downfall was inevitable. Three hundred years seems to be the upper limit for the time it takes a regime to decay. In China, no dynasty—no matter how successful—survived beyond three hundred years (see Democracy vs. Plutocracy).
From their long history, the Chinese have gleaned lessons that countries with shorter histories often lack. For instance, nations with brief histories may pursue policies of plundering, exploitation, and bullying the weak. In contrast, the Chinese understand that the ultimate victor must be the one guided by benevolence, justice, fairness, moral integrity, and popular support (see Understanding China: Geography, Confucianism, and Chinese-Style Modernization). Building on this understanding, the Chinese established their current government, the People’s Republic of China. This government is genuinely of the people, by the people, and for the people, aiming to promote the well-being and prosperity of all citizens, rather than serving the interests of a small group of landlords, industrial tycoons, and bankers.
History has also taught the Chinese that one major cause of regime cycles is land annexation. To prevent the gradual concentration of resources in the hands of a few, land in China has been nationalized and allocated to the people for use, while the buying and selling of land is prohibited. The Chinese have also learned that the dominance of capital over politics is a key cause of regime change, thus the state must oversee capital on behalf of the people, ensuring it does not influence political decisions to favor special interests.
Furthermore, history has demonstrated that equality and common prosperity are the foundations of social stability. Therefore, the government implements favorable policies, provides opportunities, initiates projects, and offers financial and technical support to help individuals succeed in various business ventures, while prohibiting the formation of monopolies that restrict opportunities for others. This approach encourages individual initiative while ensuring state oversight of capital to protect the interests of all citizens. Through these measures, China has eradicated poverty, become the world's largest manufacturing powerhouse, and established the world’s largest middle-class population.
History has also taught the Chinese the importance of preventing regime cycles through good governance, meritocracy, collective leadership, and continuous reform. They have learned through hard lessons the dangers of concentrating absolute power in a single leader, whether hereditary or elected. Consequently, mechanisms for collective decision-making have been established, along with age and term limits for officials, to ensure leadership renewal and peaceful transitions. Officials are selected based on their character, abilities, experience, and achievements, rather than rhetoric, promises, or ideological posturing. Continuous reforms are implemented to address systemic shortcomings. These reforms include clean governance initiatives, self-correction mechanisms, disciplinary inspections, anti-corruption measures, public oversight, reporting and petitioning systems, and impeachment procedures.
Political decisions are made by consensus through research, inquiry, consultation, and discussion, rather than through partisan conflict. Thousands of years of political experience have made the Chinese acutely aware of the dangers of partisan politics. Political parties often represent special interests, and partisan conflicts severely weaken a government's ability to govern while creating deep divisions among the populace. The rotation of power between opposing parties results in incoherent policies and makes long-term planning impossible. Voters are not always well-informed or rational and can be easily swayed by empty promises, emotional appeals, and misinformation. Elected politicians often tend to be sensationalist and lack the moral and practical experience required for effective governance. They frequently prioritize their donors and re-election prospects over the long-term interests of the people. Current administrations often take irresponsible actions, such as overspending, overborrowing, and overprinting money, to benefit their own tenures, leaving disastrous consequences for future administrations. Without continuous reforms, these shortsighted practices, driven by self-interest, make it impossible for a regime to escape its historical cycle.
The lessons of history are clear: no regime is immune to the cycles of rise and fall. The United States, despite its current global influence, is no exception to this rule. If it continues to ignore the historical patterns that have led to the collapse of past regimes—unchecked wealth concentration, political corruption, partisan division, and the dominance of special interests over the common good—its downfall will be inevitable. Without serious reflection on its actions and behavior, and without meaningful reforms to address systemic inequalities, political dysfunction, and economic mismanagement, the US risks repeating the very mistakes that have toppled great powers throughout history. Only by learning from these lessons can it hope to preserve its stability and avoid becoming yet another casualty in the vicious cycle of regime change. (See Pluralism vs. Monism.)
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